3月6日，千问宣布持续投入“AI办事”，用户可以让AI一句话下单各类生活服务，享受AI办事带来的便捷和立减实惠。进入2026年，“办事”正在成为全球AI行业新焦点。谷歌、OpenAI相继重点投入“AI办事”。而在中国，AI已开始进入真实消费场景。今年春节期间，阿里千问完成了2亿笔真实订单，AI办事开始走进日常生活。“AI办事能降低大众的使用门槛、激活需求潜能，让AI从尝鲜走向常用；另一方面，在复杂的生活场景中，让AI持续增强对人类真实意图的理解，为技术进化解锁更多可能性。”千问APP人士表示。 借助中国丰富的线上线下消费场景，AI办事正在全面走入生活场景。今年春节，有1.3亿人在千问首次体验了AI购物，其中有400万人年龄在60岁以上。

都说自己是AI手机，字节、谷歌、阿里走的根本不是同一条路-品玩 品玩 科技创新者的每日必读 打开APP 品玩APP 线下活动 专题 登录 首页 实时要闻 品驾 品玩Global 硅星人 不客观实验室 PinGraphic 我的订阅 #品玩大模型内刊# 首页 实时要闻 品驾 品玩Global 硅星人 不客观实验室 PinGraphic 我的订阅 #品玩大模型内刊# English SYNClub 线下活动 专题 注册 登录 关闭 都说自己是AI手机，字节、谷歌、阿里走的根本不是同一条路 国内手机生态乱成一锅粥了，谁的AI也不好使 董道力 发布于 10小时前 IDC 预测，2026 年中国 AI 手机出货量将达 1.47 亿台，占整体市场的 53%。行业把今年叫"AI 手机元年"。但"AI 手机"这四个字背后，各家在做的事差得很远。表面上大家都在说"让 AI 帮你操作手机"，底层逻辑却完全不同。有人让 AI 直接看屏幕操作，有人让 App 主动开放接口，有人在自家生态里打通服务。三条路，各有各的逻辑，各有各的天花板。三星 S26 发布，努比亚总裁倪飞发微博说谷歌和三星"比我们晚了三个月"。这句话本身没错，但用"早晚"来衡量这件事，有点出入。毕竟字节、谷歌、阿里，AI手机的方案根本不在同一条跑道上。谷歌：让 App 主动开门谷歌今年 2 月发布了两套并行方案：AppFunctions，和 Intelligent UI Automation。AppFunctions 的逻辑是，App 开发者在代码里标注哪些功能可以被 AI 调用，比如"创建日历事件"、"搜索照片"。这些声明被编译成索引文件，提交给安卓系统。Gemini 收到用户指令，先查索引，找到匹配功能，在设备本地直接调用，全程不经过外部服务器。谷歌把 AppFunctions 定义为"手机端的 MCP"。MCP 是 AI 圈的协议，解决 AI 模型如何连接外部工具的问题。AppFunctions 把这套逻辑搬进手机本地，App 主动开放接口，AI 按接口调用，有授权，有边界，有记录。搭载该系统的三星 S26 展示了一个案例，用户对着 AI 说"找我家猫的照片"，Gemini 就会调用三星相册的接口，照片直接出现在对话界面，用户没有打开任何 App。我们用更常用的淘宝为例。如果淘宝接入 AppFunctions，开放"搜索商品"的接口。此时，用户对着 Gemini 说"帮我在淘宝找一双跑步鞋，预算 1000 以内"，Gemini 就能直接调用淘宝的搜索接口拿回结果，在 AI 对话页面展示给用户，全程用户不需要打开淘宝。淘宝也能控制哪些功能开放、哪些数据不对外暴露，权限边界由 App 自己划定。但这么做限制也很明显，App 必须主动接入，目前支持的主要集中在日历、备忘录这几个类别。所以谷歌同时推了 Intelligent UI Automation 作为补充，专门针对还没接入 AppFunctions 的 App。AI 通过模拟点击、滑动完成任务，开发者不需要改一行代码。目前在 S26系列 和 Pixel 10 上小范围测试，支持外卖、打车等少数场景。用户可以随时接管，遇到付款，Gemini 会先弹确认。谷歌官方说"今年晚些时候分享更多细节"。功能上线了，规范还没写完，边界在哪里谷歌自己也还在摸索。因此，这也就是中兴倪总所谓的三星+Gemini 只完成了努比亚的局部能力。字节：直接看屏幕，但被微信堵在门口字节+努比亚的豆包手机，走的是另一条路，其底层是字节自研的 UI-TARS 模型。工作方式很直观，截屏，截图输入视觉模型，模型分析屏幕上有什么，决定点哪里，通过安卓无障碍权限把指令发给手机。截图、分析、点击，循环，直到任务完成。不需要任何 App 配合，理论上能操作手机上所有应用。同样以淘宝举例，豆包手机不需要淘宝授权，它能识别淘宝页面中每一个按钮是做什么的，点击哪个能实现什么功能。你让豆包手机搜索商品，它会像真人一样，点来点去，直到生成答案。这一切都建立在 UI-TARS 模型的强大能力中，在 AndroidWorld 基准测试，UI-TARS 1.5 得了 64.2 分，GPT-4o 是 34.5 分。首批3万台豆包手机曾经吵得火热，而今除了科技测评人，还有多少人在用？新技术会引发一时狂热，但热度散去大家才发现，很多底层问题都没解决。实际使用中，微信、支付宝、淘宝、各类金融 App 会直接弹安全警告拦截操作。这些 App 的安全机制能识别出"有程序在模拟人点击"，判定为异常。此外，豆包手机依赖的无障碍权限，设计初衷是帮助残障用户，AI 拿来批量操作 App，踩的是整个安卓生态的红线。而且很多软件升级安全策略，UI 更新，都可能让豆包手机的一部分功能失效。虽然，谷歌的 Intelligent UI Automation 和豆包手机在技术原理上差不多，都是看屏幕、模拟点击。但谷歌的方案有系统层背书，谁让安卓是他的。豆包走的是权限的灰色地带，没有这层信任基础。动作相近，性质不同。阿里：最安全，也最难阿里的路线叫 A2A，Agent to Agent，智能体互联。春节期间，我们用千问点奶茶，操作起来和也挺像 AI 手机的，但还是有区别。千问不看屏幕，也不碰手机系统权限，直接调用 App 的服务接口。用户说"帮我在饿了么订午饭，再用高德叫辆车去下午的会"，千问把两个请求分别派发给饿了么智能体和高德智能体，各自完成，结果汇总返回。全程没有截图，没有模拟点击，数据在预设接口里流转，隐私风险几乎为零。但前提是，这些操作都需要在阿里自己的生态里。淘宝、饿了么、高德、支付宝本来就是同一家公司，接口打通的谈判成本几乎不存在。一旦脱离阿里生态，这些操作就行不通了。让千问帮用户操作美团、抖音、滴滴、微信、小红书，需要这些公司主动开放接口。美团、字节、滴滴、腾讯、小红书一家一家谈下去，都需要时间，只不过随着随着各家都在探索和推出智能体，A2A 路线的上限，也会随着生态边界的拓宽不断变宽。AI 手机到底长什么样？三条路，三种下注逻辑。字节押的是速度，靠通用性换先发，代价是和整个 App 生态的安全机制进行抗争。但好处是人们一提到 AI 手机，都会想到字节。阿里押的是安全感，隐私风险最低，天花板也最清晰。谷歌押的是规则，AppFunctions 开发者文档已经迭代到 alpha07 版本，每个 API 都有完整规范，慢但每一版都在扩大生态。而且谷歌还有一张牌没打出来，苹果今年确认将用 Gemini 驱动下一代 Apple Intelligence。落地之后，Gemini 将同时成为安卓和 iOS 的 AI 底座，覆盖全球绝大多数手机用户。AppFunctions 的标准，就不只是安卓的规则，而是整个移动互联网的规则。当 AI 成了用户和 App 之间的新一层，控制了这一层，就控制了下一代的流量入口。三条路线都有各自的天花板，但更大的问题是：AI手机的几个方案都还没跑通。谷歌搞 AppFunctions，最终能走多远，得看有多少 App 愿意主动接入。目前最大的障碍就是开发者，现在支持的，也就 Uber、Grubhub 这几个。此外，国内的微信、美团、抖音，不会因为谷歌发了一套 API 就排队来接。信任这关，更麻烦。AI 帮你点外卖，出错了顶多重来一单。AI 帮你转了账，发现转错了，这锅谁背？目前三条路线都没给出答案。就和自动驾驶一样，没有法律的背书，无论案例多光鲜都是自嗨。用户的信任是慢慢建起来的，但往往要出几次真实事故才会被认真对待。更重要的是场景这关，说白了就是 AI 手机到底有什么用？现在演示的都是"找照片"、"订外卖"、"叫车"，指令清晰，步骤固定，一气呵成。然而，真实生活不是这样的。"帮我把上周和那谁的聊天方案整理一下，顺便把下周的会议改到周五"，这种才是日常，没有一家现在能顺滑处理。AI 手机卖出去是一回事，用户每天真的在用 AI 操作 App，是另一回事。 点赞 董道力 关注 这家伙很懒，什么也没留下，却只想留下你！ 每日要闻 扫码查看每日要闻 0 条评论 请「登录」后评论 取消 发布 AI阅读助手 以下有两点提示，请您注意： 1. 请避免输入违反公序良俗、不安全或敏感的内容，模型可能无法回答不合适的问题。 2. 我们致力于提供高质量的大模型问答服务，但无法保证回答的准确性、时效性、全面性或适用性。在使用本服务时，您需要自行判断并承担风险； 感谢您的理解与配合 该功能目前正处于内测阶段，尚未对所有用户开放。如果您想快人一步体验产品的新功能，欢迎点击下面的按钮申请参与内测 申请内测

IDC 预测，2026 年中国 AI 手机出货量将达 1.47 亿台，占整体市场的 53%。行业把今年叫"AI 手机元年"。但"AI 手机"这四个字背后，各家在做的事差得很远。表面上大家都在说"让 AI 帮你操作手机"，底层逻辑却完全不同。有人让 AI 直接看屏幕操作，有人让 App 主动开放接口，有人在自家生态里打通服务。三条路，各有各的逻辑，各有各的天花板。三星 S26 发布，努比亚总裁倪飞发微博说谷歌和三星"比我们晚了三个月"。这句话本身没错，但用"早晚"来衡量这件事，有点出入。毕竟字节、谷歌、阿里，AI手机的方案根本不在同一条跑道上。谷歌：让 App 主动开门谷歌今年 2 月发布了两套并行方案：AppFunctions，和 Intelligent UI Automation。AppFunctions 的逻辑是，App 开发者在代码里标注哪些功能可以被 AI 调用，比如"创建日历事件"、"搜索照片"。这些声明被编译成索引文件，提交给安卓系统。Gemini 收到用户指令，先查索引，找到匹配功能，在设备本地直接调用，全程不经过外部服务器。谷歌把 AppFunctions 定义为"手机端的 MCP"。MCP 是 AI 圈的协议，解决 AI 模型如何连接外部工具的问题。AppFunctions 把这套逻辑搬进手机本地，App 主动开放接口，AI 按接口调用，有授权，有边界，有记录。搭载该系统的三星 S26 展示了一个案例，用户对着 AI 说"找我家猫的照片"，Gemini 就会调用三星相册的接口，照片直接出现在对话界面，用户没有打开任何 App。我们用更常用的淘宝为例。如果淘宝接入 AppFunctions，开放"搜索商品"的接口。此时，用户对着 Gemini 说"帮我在淘宝找一双跑步鞋，预算 1000 以内"，Gemini 就能直接调用淘宝的搜索接口拿回结果，在 AI 对话页面展示给用户，全程用户不需要打开淘宝。淘宝也能控制哪些功能开放、哪些数据不对外暴露，权限边界由 App 自己划定。但这么做限制也很明显，App 必须主动接入，目前支持的主要集中在日历、备忘录这几个类别。所以谷歌同时推了 Intelligent UI Automation 作为补充，专门针对还没接入 AppFunctions 的 App。AI 通过模拟点击、滑动完成任务，开发者不需要改一行代码。目前在 S26系列 和 Pixel 10 上小范围测试，支持外卖、打车等少数场景。用户可以随时接管，遇到付款，Gemini 会先弹确认。谷歌官方说"今年晚些时候分享更多细节"。功能上线了，规范还没写完，边界在哪里谷歌自己也还在摸索。因此，这也就是中兴倪总所谓的三星+Gemini 只完成了努比亚的局部能力。字节：直接看屏幕，但被微信堵在门口字节+努比亚的豆包手机，走的是另一条路，其底层是字节自研的 UI-TARS 模型。工作方式很直观，截屏，截图输入视觉模型，模型分析屏幕上有什么，决定点哪里，通过安卓无障碍权限把指令发给手机。截图、分析、点击，循环，直到任务完成。不需要任何 App 配合，理论上能操作手机上所有应用。同样以淘宝举例，豆包手机不需要淘宝授权，它能识别淘宝页面中每一个按钮是做什么的，点击哪个能实现什么功能。你让豆包手机搜索商品，它会像真人一样，点来点去，直到生成答案。这一切都建立在 UI-TARS 模型的强大能力中，在 AndroidWorld 基准测试，UI-TARS 1.5 得了 64.2 分，GPT-4o 是 34.5 分。首批3万台豆包手机曾经吵得火热，而今除了科技测评人，还有多少人在用？新技术会引发一时狂热，但热度散去大家才发现，很多底层问题都没解决。实际使用中，微信、支付宝、淘宝、各类金融 App 会直接弹安全警告拦截操作。这些 App 的安全机制能识别出"有程序在模拟人点击"，判定为异常。此外，豆包手机依赖的无障碍权限，设计初衷是帮助残障用户，AI 拿来批量操作 App，踩的是整个安卓生态的红线。而且很多软件升级安全策略，UI 更新，都可能让豆包手机的一部分功能失效。虽然，谷歌的 Intelligent UI Automation 和豆包手机在技术原理上差不多，都是看屏幕、模拟点击。但谷歌的方案有系统层背书，谁让安卓是他的。豆包走的是权限的灰色地带，没有这层信任基础。动作相近，性质不同。阿里：最安全，也最难阿里的路线叫 A2A，Agent to Agent，智能体互联。春节期间，我们用千问点奶茶，操作起来和也挺像 AI 手机的，但还是有区别。千问不看屏幕，也不碰手机系统权限，直接调用 App 的服务接口。用户说"帮我在饿了么订午饭，再用高德叫辆车去下午的会"，千问把两个请求分别派发给饿了么智能体和高德智能体，各自完成，结果汇总返回。全程没有截图，没有模拟点击，数据在预设接口里流转，隐私风险几乎为零。但前提是，这些操作都需要在阿里自己的生态里。淘宝、饿了么、高德、支付宝本来就是同一家公司，接口打通的谈判成本几乎不存在。一旦脱离阿里生态，这些操作就行不通了。让千问帮用户操作美团、抖音、滴滴、微信、小红书，需要这些公司主动开放接口。美团、字节、滴滴、腾讯、小红书一家一家谈下去，都需要时间，只不过随着随着各家都在探索和推出智能体，A2A 路线的上限，也会随着生态边界的拓宽不断变宽。AI 手机到底长什么样？三条路，三种下注逻辑。字节押的是速度，靠通用性换先发，代价是和整个 App 生态的安全机制进行抗争。但好处是人们一提到 AI 手机，都会想到字节。阿里押的是安全感，隐私风险最低，天花板也最清晰。谷歌押的是规则，AppFunctions 开发者文档已经迭代到 alpha07 版本，每个 API 都有完整规范，慢但每一版都在扩大生态。而且谷歌还有一张牌没打出来，苹果今年确认将用 Gemini 驱动下一代 Apple Intelligence。落地之后，Gemini 将同时成为安卓和 iOS 的 AI 底座，覆盖全球绝大多数手机用户。AppFunctions 的标准，就不只是安卓的规则，而是整个移动互联网的规则。当 AI 成了用户和 App 之间的新一层，控制了这一层，就控制了下一代的流量入口。三条路线都有各自的天花板，但更大的问题是：AI手机的几个方案都还没跑通。谷歌搞 AppFunctions，最终能走多远，得看有多少 App 愿意主动接入。目前最大的障碍就是开发者，现在支持的，也就 Uber、Grubhub 这几个。此外，国内的微信、美团、抖音，不会因为谷歌发了一套 API 就排队来接。信任这关，更麻烦。AI 帮你点外卖，出错了顶多重来一单。AI 帮你转了账，发现转错了，这锅谁背？目前三条路线都没给出答案。就和自动驾驶一样，没有法律的背书，无论案例多光鲜都是自嗨。用户的信任是慢慢建起来的，但往往要出几次真实事故才会被认真对待。更重要的是场景这关，说白了就是 AI 手机到底有什么用？现在演示的都是"找照片"、"订外卖"、"叫车"，指令清晰，步骤固定，一气呵成。然而，真实生活不是这样的。"帮我把上周和那谁的聊天方案整理一下，顺便把下周的会议改到周五"，这种才是日常，没有一家现在能顺滑处理。AI 手机卖出去是一回事，用户每天真的在用 AI 操作 App，是另一回事。

2026年3月5日，十四届全国人大四次会议开幕，国务院总理李强向大会作政府工作报告。快来看看报告中有哪些和我们医保息息相关吧。一 2025年工作回顾五是切实抓好民生保障，积极发展社会事业。出台稳就业支持政策，开展大规模职业技能提升培训行动，重点群体就业保持稳定。推进教育强国建设三年行动计划，推动高校学科专业调整，加强县域普通高中建设。实施医疗卫生强基工程。完善儿科和精神卫生服务体系，全国二三级公立综合医院儿科服务实现全覆盖。有效防控基孔肯雅热等传染病疫情。健全基本医保参保长效机制，优化医药集采措施，推出商业健康保险创新药目录，长期护理保险制度覆盖3亿人。渐进式延迟法定退休年龄改革稳妥实施。城乡居民基础养老金月最低标准提高20元，在全国实施个人养老金制度，开展养老服务消费补贴试点。持续推进社会救助扩围增效，加强重度残疾人托养照护，完善困境儿童福利保障措施。提高优抚标准。发展文化事业和文化产业，旅游业活力显现，国内出游人次增长16.2%，入境旅游人次增长17.1%。成功举办第九届亚洲冬季运动会、第十五届全国运动会，群众体育赛事和全民健身活动蓬勃开展。二 “十五五” 时期主要目标和重大任务三是突出推进全体人民共同富裕。中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化。《纲要(草案)》着眼建设生育友好型社会，健全人口服务体系;办好人民满意的教育，劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限提高到11.7年;加快建设健康中国和体育强国，人均预期寿命提高到80岁;积极应对人口老龄化，养老机构护理型床位占比提高到73%;促进高质量充分就业，完善收入分配制度，健全社会保障体系。着眼缩小区域差距和城乡差别，加快农业农村现代化，持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，优化重大生产力布局，深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化。着眼促进人民精神生活共同富裕，弘扬和践行社会主义核心价值观，大力繁荣文化事业，加快发展文化产业，提升中华文明传播力影响力。三 2026 年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向(八) 更大力度保障和改善民生。坚持民生为大，加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设，努力为人民群众多办实事。强化基本医疗卫生服务。实施健康优先发展战略，健全健康促进政策制度体系，提升爱国卫生运动成效，强化公共卫生能力。健全医疗、医保、医药协同发展和治理机制，深化以公益性为导向的公立医院改革，加强县区、基层医疗机构运行保障。强化薄弱专科建设，全方位提升急诊急救、血液保障和应急能力。优化医疗机构功能定位和布局，加强基层用药衔接，做实家庭医生签约服务，促进分级诊疗。推进中医药传承创新，促进中西医结合。居民医保人均财政补助标准提高24元。健全多层次医疗保障体系，稳步推动基本医疗保险省级统筹，优化医药集中采购和价格治理，深化医保支付方式改革，完善结余资金使用政策。坚决打击欺诈骗保。加快发展商业健康保险，推动创新药和医疗器械高质量发展，更好满足人民群众多元化就医用药需求。加强社会保障和服务。城乡居民基础养老金月最低标准再提高20元。完善并落实基本养老保险全国统筹制度，扩大失业、工伤保险覆盖面，稳妥有序推进职业伤害保障试点扩围，健全社保关系转移接续政策。深入实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略，扩大普惠养老服务供给，积极发展农村养老服务，实施中度以上失能老年人养老服务消费补贴项目。积极开发老年人力资源，制定推进银发经济高质量发展的措施，完善老年用品产品、养老金融、旅居养老等支持政策。实施康复护理扩容提升工程。推行长期护理保险制度。做好独居老人、失能失智等困难群体的关爱帮扶。倡导积极婚育观。加强初婚初育家庭住房保障，支持多子女家庭改善性住房需求。完善生育保险制度和生育休假制度。深入开展托育服务补助示范试点，发展普惠托育和托幼一体化服务。加强残疾预防、康复和托养照护服务，推进养老助残资源统筹利用。做好困境儿童关爱服务，保障妇女儿童合法权益。加强军人军属、退役军人和其他优抚对象服务保障。建立健全基本殡葬服务制度。分层分类做好社会救助工作，兜住兜牢民生底线。

Recent developments in the Middle East have disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As set out in our latest macro analysis, higher energy prices are the main transmission channel to the global economy, even if the direct drag on world GDP is likely to be modest. This report examines how those price pressures impact key industries. What you will learn: A two-month disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which forms the basis of our March baseline, would push the average oil price to just below $80 per barrel in Q2 before easing, leaving the global growth impact relatively contained. That muted effect carries through to industry. Relative to our previous baseline, most sectors see only small trims rather than steep declines, with deviations generally measured in tenths of a percent. Exposure to higher energy prices is highly uneven across industries. Road transport, aviation, and shipping record the highest energy intensities, while chemicals emerges as particularly vulnerable, due to its reliance on hydrocarbons both as energy inputs and as feedstocks. Europe’s chemicals sector is especially exposed. The recent surge in European gas prices to nearly double their level in recent days risks deepening competitiveness challenges for producers. Gas price increases will cause electricity price rises. Should the disruption endure, this will place additional pressure on electricity-intensive industries such as metals and non-metallic minerals. Download our report to learn more. You might also be interested in From the Iran war to tariffs: how global shocks impact industry While the fundamentals for global industrial growth have remained relatively constant, downside... Shock to LNG supply is the bigger war risk in Asia Disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz poses a bigger... How will central banks respond to the Iran conflict? Energy prices are pushing inflation higher in the UK and Eurozone, undermining... Tourism impacts in Middle East from Iran War We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27% y-y... Iran conflict will rile energy markets, not break them The oil market is well placed to manage the impact from Iran.... Few economic impacts from Iran conflict outside the GCC The conflict in the Middle East will likely have significant implications for... Tags: IndustriesIndustryiran conflict

From the Iran war to tariffs: how global shocks impact industry | Oxford Economics Skip to content English Request a trial Menu Capabilities Why Oxford Economics? 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Abby Samp Director, Industry Subscription Services I’m pleased to share that Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Forecasts are now being updated monthly. With more frequent updates, our clients can anticipate changes earlier and respond sooner—adjusting sourcing, pricing, inventories, and capex plans before competitors do. Each update also stays fully aligned with Oxford Economics’ global macro baseline, ensuring sector outlooks reflect the most current view of the global economy. This enhancement comes at a time of heightened global volatility. When major shocks hit—like the Supreme Court’s ruling affecting the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs or the escalating conflict in the Middle East—we will incorporate the macroeconomic implications into our sector models. The rest of this blog post explores the sectoral implication of these two major developments. New baseline forecasts, incorporating these changes, will be published to our industry databank at the end of the month. Trump’s new tariffs: little sectoral relief for now, potential reshuffle ahead The latest turn in President Trump’s trade war sees a messy grid of IEEPA rates (ranging from 10%–50%) replaced by flat 15% tariff on all goods. In our upcoming March baseline forecast, we assume that President Trump will impose the 15% tariff threatened on Truth Social, going beyond the 10% duty that has been authorised under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. While this new tariff regime is simpler on paper, the net change across sectors is far from uniform: because the US buys different products from different regions, the effective change in the tariff rate varies across sectors (see chart). Unlock exclusive economic and business insights—sign up for our newsletter today Subscribe About half of imports see no change to their effective tariff rate, roughly 45% of products get a cut, and duties for just over 5% of goods tick up—with a +5.0ppt rise on lard being the largest increase. The tariff relief is sharpest where rates were already high: leather (-3.8ppts to 25.5%), apparel (-1.9ppts to 30.7%), and textiles (-2.0ppts to 20.9%). These sectors benefit from lower baseline tariffs on key Asian suppliers, like Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam. Some of the steepest decreases can be seen in transport equipment, including in railway freight cars (-20ppts). US industrials also catch a break as tariffs on key inputs to production—including intermediate metals from major suppliers like Brazil and Canada—come down. Existing product carve-outs remain in place, including USMCA goods, pharmaceuticals, key agricultural products, and the computers and electronics powering the AI data-centre buildout. The new tariffs also don’t apply to goods that are already subject to additional Section 232 tariffs such as steel and aluminium. Tariff-related uncertainty has surged since the Supreme Court decision, posing an important downside risk to our investment forecast if it persists. While the president can no longer make sudden changes to tariffs, firms are now in the dark as to where tariffs will settle once the Section 122 tariffs sunset in 150 days. Expedited reviews under Section 232 and 301 could result in tariff hikes for specific sectors or countries. If these come online as the Section 122 tariff expires, the sectoral burden may rotate toward robotics, critical minerals, and pharma. Iran war: large impacts in the Middle East and on oil-intensive sectors Global energy prices are climbing as tensions in the Middle East intensify. At the time of writing, the Brent Crude oil price was up nearly 50% from the start of the year, and European and Asian natural gas prices have risen even more sharply. Assuming the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz is relatively short-lived, the impact of these higher energy costs on global GDP should be relatively modest. However, the impact on different sectors is far from uniform. The cost pressures from rising energy prices are concentrated in a specific set of energy-intensive industries. Industry exposure to higher energy prices is highly uneven (see chart). Although transport sectors—shipping, road, and aviation—sit at the top of the energy intensity distribution, their overwhelming reliance on oil leaves them slightly less exposed to the current shock than gas-intensive sectors. The global gas market currently lacks the buffers needed to absorb disruptions, leaving gas-intensive sectors extremely vulnerable. The chemical sector stands out as the key loser: hydrocarbons are not only an energy source but also a key feedstock, magnifying the cost squeeze. While refining is also an energy-intensive industry, it largely acts as an intermediate sector, passing through costs as it converts crude oil into fuels and petrochemical inputs that are ultimately consumed elsewhere in the economy, most notably in transport and chemicals. Where gas‑fired plants set the marginal power price, higher gas prices will also push up electricity costs, adding pressure to electricity‑intensive industries such as metals and non‑metallic minerals. On a regional basis, Europe’s chemical sector is especially exposed. Europe’s natural gas prices have risen nearly 70% in recent days—still far below the 2022 peak, when prices were roughly six times current levels—but high enough to chip away further at the competitiveness of Europe’s chemical sector. Several Asian chemical hubs also face elevated risk, given reliance on LNG feedstocks imported from Qatar that transit the through the Strait of Hormuz. By contrast, US chemicals—though more gas‑feedstock‑reliant than Europe—are cushioned by a smaller response in the Henry Hub gas price. China’s use of coal‑based feedstocks also leaves it relatively insulated, potentially widening the ongoing competitiveness gap with Europe. We have run our new commodity price forecasts through Oxford Economics’ Global Economic and Global Industry models to calibrate the sectoral response in our upcoming forecast. Relative to our previous baseline, most sectors see only small trims rather than steep declines, with deviations generally measured in tenths of a percent. The sectors that experience larger changes are consistent with the energy intensity patterns discussed above. Refining falls 0.6% relative to baseline as higher prices trigger some demand destruction. Several chemical subsectors register the next‑largest dips, and transport sectors also soften. Non‑ferrous metals face additional risk given the Gulf’s roughly 10% share of global aluminium supply and the volume of shipments that transit through the Strait. Agricultural production also faces downside risks, as disruptions to trade through the Strait could tighten fertiliser supply chains and raise input costs for agricultural producers. Navigating industry risk in a volatile global economy In today’s volatile environment, global shocks affect industries through different transmission channels: Trade‑exposed industries, such as autos, electronics, machinery will see a reassessment of demand, pricing, and supply-chain risks. Energy-intensive sectors, such as refining and chemicals, see timely updates tied to oil price developments. Consumer sectors benefit from up-to-date changes to confidence, inflation, and incomes. In this environment, foresight is no longer an add-on, it is essential. Businesses must anticipate what lies ahead and continually reassess demand conditions, supply chains, cost pressures, and investment plans as the global landscape evolves. Our Global Industry Service provides this forward-looking perspective, so you can plan with accuracy and adapt with confidence. With monthly sector forecasts, rapid analysis of global disruptions and a unified macro-to-industry decision framework, we help you stay ahead in the era of global change and unlock the power of economics. To experience the service and explore our latest forecasts and analysis, request a trial of the Global Industry Service. 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Fact Sheets Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Combats Cybercrime, Fraud, and Predatory Schemes Against American Citizens The White House March 6, 2026 COMBATING CYBERCRIME AND FRAUD: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to combat cybercrime, fraud, and predatory schemes targeting American families, businesses, and critical infrastructure. The Order directs relevant Administration officials to conduct a comprehensive review to determine what operational, technical, diplomatic, and regulatory tools could be improved to combat transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) engaged in cyber-enabled crime and predatory schemes. The Order requires the submission of an action plan that identifies the TCOs responsible for scam centers and cybercrime and proposes solutions to prevent, disrupt, investigate, and dismantle their operations—including through the establishment of a dedicated operational cell within the National Coordination Center (NCC). The Order directs the Attorney General to prioritize prosecutions of cyber-enabled fraud and scam schemes, pursuing the most serious, provable offenses. The Order directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to partner with the NCC to provide training, technical assistance, and resilience building against cyber threats for State and local partners. The Order directs the Attorney General to submit a recommendation regarding the establishment of a Victims Restoration Program to return seized or forfeited funds from fraudsters directly to victims. The Order directs the Secretary of State to engage with foreign governments regarding demands to take enforcement action against TCOs on their soil and to impose consequences—including sanctions, visa restrictions, foreign assistance limits, and expulsion of complicit officials—on nations that tolerate these predatory schemes. PROTECTING AMERICANS FROM PREDATORY SCHEMES. President Trump is unleashing every available tool to stop foreign-backed criminal networks that exploit vulnerable Americans through cyber-enabled fraud and extortion. Ransomware attacks, phishing campaigns, financial fraud, sextortion schemes, and impersonation scams are often coordinated campaigns run by sophisticated TCOs. In many cases, foreign regimes provide willing or tacit state support to cybercrime and predatory schemes, creating a shadow economy fueled by stolen identities, coercion, forced labor, and human trafficking. The most vulnerable among us—seniors, children, and low-income families—are disproportionately targeted, draining life savings, stealing the benefits of years of work, and destroying lives.In 2024, American consumers reported losing more than $12.5 billion to cyber-enabled fraud, with seniors on average losing the most. 73% of U.S. adults have experienced some kind of online scam or attack, and 87% of seniors view online scams and attacks as a major problem. One in seven young people who experienced sextortion as a minor reported harming themselves in response to the abuse. Up until now, outdated frameworks, gaps in coordination, and lack of real consequences have allowed these networks to thrive. With this Executive Order, President Trump has directed the creation of an Action Plan which will identify and eliminate barriers to dismantling the TCOs responsible for these crimes. Further, the designation of the NCC as the lead national element for this effort will facilitate much needed coordination and strategic leadership. DELIVERING JUSTICE AND SECURITY FOR AMERICANS: President Trump is advancing cybersecurity for the safety of all Americans. President Trump has made it clear that this Administration will do what it takes to make America cyber secure—including focusing relentlessly on technical and organizational solutions to improve the security and resilience of the nation’s information systems and networks. In May 2025, President Trump signed the TAKE IT DOWN Act, a historic and bipartisan new law, championed by First Lady Melania Trump, focused on protecting children and families from online extortion and exploitation through the non-consensual distribution of intimate images and deepfake abuse. On March 3, 2025, Mrs. Trump convened a Roundtable on Online Protection and the TAKE IT DOWN Act with Members of Congress, survivors of non-consensual intimate imagery, and online-safety advocates to call for enhanced protections and congressional action. In June 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order to strengthen the nation’s cybersecurity by focusing on critical protections against foreign cyber threats and enhancing secure technology practices. In September 2025, the Trump Administration issued a Notice to help financial institutions detect and disrupt financially motivated sextortion. President Trump has taken action to remove barriers to AI innovation, ensuring that our technology sector remains competitive at the cutting edge of new developments.

智通财经APP讯，云南水务(06839)发布公告，2026年3月6日起，朱振先生获重选为第四届董事会执行董事;李争争先生及段涛女士获推选为第四届董事会非执行董事。2026年3月6日召开的董事会会议上，朱振先生获重选为董事长;重选朱振先生为公司提名委员会委员主席，任期自本次董事会审议通过之日起至第四届董事会任期届满之日为止，届满后可重选连任。

智通财经APP讯，美格智能(03268)发布公告，于2026年3月6日，发售价已厘定为每股发售股份28.86港元。发售量调整权已获悉数行使，据此，公司将按发售价发行及配发525万股额外发售股份，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约15.0%。假设全球发售于2026年3月10日上午八时正或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2026年3月10日上午九时正开始在联交所主板买卖。H股将以每手100股H股买卖。

智通财经APP获悉，华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)首席执行官David Zaslav本周出售了超过1.13亿美元的公司股票，在公司即将被派拉蒙天舞(PSKY.US)收购之际兑现部分持股收益。根据披露信息，此次减持仅占Zaslav所持股份的一部分。按照派拉蒙提出的收购价格计算，他目前仍持有价值超过2.2亿美元的普通股，并且在交易完成后，还可能通过额外的股票奖励获得数亿美元的潜在收益。周四，华纳兄弟探索股价收于28美元，明显低于派拉蒙提出的每股31美元收购价，这意味着Zaslav此次出售股票的价格较潜在收购价存在明显折价。Huber Research Partners媒体分析师Doug Arthur表示：“对于一笔预计不会遇到太多障碍的交易来说，约10%的折价看起来相当大。”除了Zaslav之外，本周还有8名公司内部人士合计出售了超过9800万美元的股票，其中首席财务官Gunnar Wiedenfels出售了近 2800万美元的股份。华纳兄弟探索方面未就此置评。部分出售股份来自Zaslav今年获得的薪酬奖励。公司董事会此前因其达成既定战略和财务目标，向其授予超过1.1亿美元的股票奖励。此外，公司去年还向其授予新的绩效股奖励，随着公司股价在被收购消息推动下上涨，这些奖励的价值迅速升至数亿美元。自2022年华纳媒体与探索公司合并成立华纳兄弟探索以来，Zaslav的管理曾遭到部分投资者批评。不过，随着公司成为收购目标，其股价显著上涨，使其持股价值大幅提升。根据派拉蒙最终提出的收购方案，相较去年9月市场首次传出收购传闻前的股价，华纳兄弟探索股东将获得接近150%的溢价。Gamco Investors创始人Mario Gabelli在接受采访时表示：“真正的赢家是Zaslav。他成功推动了一场竞价，公司股价表现非常好。”在竞购过程中，派拉蒙始终强调其报价优于奈飞(NFLX.US)的方案，并认为监管审批难度更低。奈飞在2025年12月曾与华纳兄弟探索达成初步收购协议，但由于其在流媒体市场已拥有更大的用户规模，该交易可能面临更严格的反垄断审查。目前，派拉蒙已获得美国司法部的反垄断批准，但仍需获得英国、欧洲以及部分美国州检察长的监管许可。根据协议，如果交易因监管原因失败，派拉蒙需向华纳兄弟探索支付70亿美元分手费。公司预计该交易将在今年第三季度完成。

智通财经APP获悉，周五，贝莱德(BLK.US)盘中一度跌近7%，截至发稿，跌逾5%，报973.42美元。消息面上，根据贝莱德旗下TCP Capital Corp.上周发布的第四季度文件，一笔约2500万美元、提供给Infinite Commerce Holdings的贷款如今已变得一文不值——Infinite Commerce是一家所谓的“亚马逊聚合商”，通过收购在线卖家经营从水疗产品到灯泡等各类商品。而贝莱德在去年第三季度时仍将这笔次级债务按面值100%计价。受资产质量影响，贝莱德TCP将季度股息从每股25美分下调至17美分，同时对SellerX相关投资进行部分减记。贝莱德TCP在文件中表示，投资组合中91%的估值下调来自2021年及更早承做的交易，相关资产在高利率环境下面临压力。

智通财经APP获悉，周五，小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)涨逾3%，报16.92美元。消息面上，3月6日，小鹏G6超级增程版车型上市，新车共推出3个版本车型，售价为18.68万~20.68万元。据了解，新车CLTC总续航为1704公里，纯电续航为430公里。据悉，小鹏汽车将在2026年发布十余款产品，包括1月初发布的2026款G6(纯电)、G9(纯电)、P7+(纯电+超级增程)和G7(超级增程)，3月2日发布的2026款X9(纯电)，以及包含G01和MONA系列首款SUV在内的四款全新SUV。