Iran conflict adds cost pressure to energy-intensive industries
来源：OXFORD ECONOMICS原文链接
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The chemicals and transport sectors are likely to be among the biggest losers from the Iran war, with Europe’s chemicals industry particularly exposed.
Recent developments in the Middle East have disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As set out in our latest macro analysis, higher energy prices are the main transmission channel to the global economy, even if the direct drag on world GDP is likely to be modest. This report examines how those price pressures impact key industries.
What you will learn:
- A two-month disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which forms the basis of our March baseline, would push the average oil price to just below $80 per barrel in Q2 before easing, leaving the global growth impact relatively contained. That muted effect carries through to industry. Relative to our previous baseline, most sectors see only small trims rather than steep declines, with deviations generally measured in tenths of a percent.
- Exposure to higher energy prices is highly uneven across industries. Road transport, aviation, and shipping record the highest energy intensities, while chemicals emerges as particularly vulnerable, due to its reliance on hydrocarbons both as energy inputs and as feedstocks.
- Europe’s chemicals sector is especially exposed. The recent surge in European gas prices to nearly double their level in recent days risks deepening competitiveness challenges for producers.
- Gas price increases will cause electricity price rises. Should the disruption endure, this will place additional pressure on electricity-intensive industries such as metals and non-metallic minerals.
Download our report to learn more.
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